Saturday, March 8, 2008

Forever Blowing Bubbles

Remember when you got bubbles? It came in a pink bottle, usually, and was part of the gift bag for li'l Billy's birthday party. This child's chotchkee was, and still is, universally loved. You would carefully twist off the cap, treating each drop as if it were uranium. The thought of spilling this sweet soap was devastating. The dual ring staff which was included featured a side for either big or small bubbles.

The actual blowing of bubbles soon became an art. The most basic techniques were the slow blow, which required patience, consistency, and a steady hand. This would lead to beautiful, big bubbles which cradled the light around it. Another technique was just blowing into the ring as hard as you could. A bubble ballet fueled by breath danced into the twilight. A wide society of bubbles strive to float high before the night fell upon them.

No matter how big or small every bubble bursts. We love bubbles. Whether through suds or gum, we enjoy bubbles. Part of the fun is trying to top your personal best bubble.

Over the past two decades, bubbles have boosted our economy. Dollars and dreams floated for years on bubbles, not realizing that they do burst. First, came the dotcom bubble of the '90s. This was the perfect vehicle for an emperor with invisible clothes.

Unprecedented amounts of venture dollars were poured into Wall Street and Main Street. In many ways, this was a false economy. While the Internet may be the best thing since sliced bread, many sites went into the oven without enough ingredients. Others were left in for too long.

The bubble burst because many simply believed that if you put a ".com" at the end of a series of words, the money would roll in. Of course a lot of money rolled in even before any one's fingers touched a keyboard or mouse pad. The economic bubble of the '90s was beautiful. It grew and captured the world which was reflected in its surroundings. It burst.

The bubble of this past decade was a bit more tangible. The best way to make a buck over the past six years was in housing. The classic cliche of buy low and sell high, once reserved for stock speculation, found its way into neighborhoods. House flipping grew as an industry. It became more than just passing on a handy man's special. It became a real life board game.

Land and real estate are always good bets. I'm all for free and open markets. Just so long as they are real. The Cowboy and Chief promoted an ownership society. For most, home ownership will be their most reliable asset. I don't think an ownership society where you buy on Baltic Avenue to sell at Park Places prices is what W had in mind.

With the dotcom and housing bubbles already burst, what false market awaits us? It is already here. The go green, or grow green effort of the past 30 years is now planted in our lives. From the laughable carbon footprints to the conversion of one natural resource into another; the eco bubble blows into the economy more by mandate than innovation or market forces.

There is always a market for something. eBay proved that. It did it without any help. The regulations handed down by government have forced businesses to adapt. The greening of America has some merit. It is easy to argue for clean water and air. Both produce bubbles.

The eco bubble was created as simply as the dotcom and housing bubbles. Yet it is even more fragile. It is like an overbearing parent grabbing their child's wrist and forcing a bubble. It will look like the other bubbles, and ultimately burst. However, there will not be that same feeling of discovery and amazement. The creation of bubbles will become boring, chore like, and ultimately loathsome.

Part of the beauty of blowing bubbles is wanting to create more.


© EMH, 2008

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